Could 25% of Colleges Close Soon?
Higher education is changing. Fast. And not every school will make it.
Arthur Levine, president of Brandeis University, recently said he expects a major shake-up. He warned that as many as a quarter of American colleges and universities could close in the coming years. He put it bluntly: “Basically, what’s happening is that higher education is undergoing a transformation,” Levine said.
Levine explained the bigger picture: “Our whole society is undergoing a transformation,” he added. “We’re watching what was a national analog industrial economy become a global digital knowledge economy. And the consequence of that, in terms of higher education, is that we’re seeing demographic change, economic change, technological change, global change, now political change. And what’s going to happen is that 20-25%, as you know, of all colleges are going to close.”
That’s a big number. But it’s not random. Schools face several pressures at once. Enrollment is down in many places. Tuition keeps rising. State budgets are tight. At the same time, people question the return on investment for many degrees.
Colleges built around small, residential programs or niche majors are especially exposed. Levine noted that “Traditional higher education as we know it — research universities, residential colleges — are where the transformation is going to occur.” In other words, the familiar campus model is being tested.
Some states are already shifting priorities. Indiana, for example, is cutting hundreds of low-enrollment degree programs and redirecting money toward trade and technical training. Lawmakers there argue the move better matches the job market and workforce needs.
That approach has pros and cons. Investing in trades can quickly fill labor gaps and offer lower-cost paths to good jobs. But narrowing funding toward vocational routes can also shrink the variety of options students have for broader academic study.
What does this mean for students and families? Expect choices to change. Expect some towns to lose colleges that have been local anchors. Expect other institutions to merge, pivot to online models, or specialize more tightly to survive.
This isn’t just about closing doors. It’s about transformation. Some closures will be painful. Some shifts will be overdue. The larger point is simple: higher education won’t look the same in a decade as it does today. Schools, students and policymakers will need to adapt.
Watch the next few years. The map of American colleges is likely to look different — perhaps dramatically so.