Blue State Exodus Could Get Ugly Fast
Fox Business host Stuart Varney says the United States may be heading into a bigger domestic migration wave, with people and businesses leaving high-tax blue states and heading for lower-tax Republican-led states.
In a recent commentary, Varney pointed to projections from economists Art Laffer and Stephen Moore. Their outlook suggests that millions of Americans could move over the next several years because of tax policy, regulation, and overall business conditions in Democrat-run states.
“Let the Exodus begin,” Varney said. “Oh, actually, it started already.”
He framed the trend as more than a simple change of address. In his view, it is a broad shift of people, jobs, and wealth away from states that have heavier tax loads and more rules on businesses.
“We’re talking about mass migration within the United States from one group of states to another,” Varney said. “This is America, and we move. But you ain’t seen nothing yet.”
Varney said Laffer and Moore project that California and New York alone could lose 800,000 residents a year for the next three years. He said that kind of number would be hard for any state to absorb without real consequences.
“Consider this, in each of the next three years, 800,000 people will leave California and New York,” Varney said. “That’s 800,000 a year.”
He added that the pressure may not stop there. According to his remarks, another 500,000 residents could leave Connecticut, New Jersey, and Minnesota over the same period.
Varney tied the forecast directly to taxes. He said residents and companies are responding to the difference between high-tax blue states and low-tax red states that are seen as more business-friendly.
“These numbers are from economists Art Laffer and Stephen Moore,” Varney said. “Quote, millions of people, 1000s of businesses and 10s of billions of net income will flee high tax, blue states for low tax red states.”
That shift, if it plays out the way the economists predict, could reshape local economies in a big way. States losing people could see weaker housing demand, slower business growth, and lower tax collections. States gaining people could see the opposite.
Varney said that is already creating a clear divide. “That’s the important point,” he said. “People and money and jobs moving out of Democrat states and moving to Republican states, taxes are what’s doing this.”
He also warned that new tax policies could make life even harder for higher earners in blue states. In his words, some people who make good money in those places may find the math no longer works in their favor.
“As we’ve said many times, you make good money in a high tax Democrat state, and this new tax law will kill you financially,” Varney said.
By his account, states like Texas, Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee, and Utah could be the big winners. He said they stand to gain residents, businesses, stronger real estate demand, and more revenue.
“This is terrible news for blue states,” Varney said. “It is a bonanza for low tax Texas, Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee, Utah and others.”
He also suggested the growth could feed on itself. More people can mean more jobs, more home sales, and more pressure for even lower taxes in states already attracting new arrivals.
“Imagine what this migration actually means,” Varney said. “Strong demand for real estate of all kinds in low tax areas, people with money will be flooding in more jobs and business openings, stronger state revenues.”
“They may even be able to cut taxes,” Varney added. “Imagine that.”
On the flip side, he said high-tax states could face a much tougher road if the trend keeps picking up. He asked whether professionals would still be willing to move to places like New York if a bigger paycheck gets chopped down by taxes.
“Would you move to, say, New York, to take a new job?” Varney asked. “If you’ll get hit with a tax hike? You will think twice.”
Varney ended by warning that efforts to squeeze wealthy residents even harder could push more people out the door. He said the migration is not just a past trend anymore. It is speeding up.
“For years we’ve been seeing migration,” Varney said. “Now get ready for mass migration.”
He then repeated the warning he says comes from Laffer and Moore: “If that happens, our best advice to blue state residents is simple, Get while the getting is good,” Varney added. “Translation: Leave now.”