Is Khamenei Preparing to Flee to Moscow?
Call it the Trump Effect. Or the Maduro Effect. Either way, this story moves fast.
According to a Times of London report, one day after Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro was taken in a dramatic raid, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has a contingency plan to leave the country if things spiral further.
Protests in Iran started in late December. They’re driven by economic collapse and political repression—same old, same old. But this round looks different to some analysts. The Times quoted intelligence sources suggesting Khamenei has mapped an exit route and destination if the security forces start to crack.
From the Times: “Khamenei, 86, plans to escape Tehran with a close circle of up to 20 aides and family, should he see that the army and security called on to quell the unrest are deserting, defecting or failing to follow orders.”
That’s the core claim. It’s framed as a contingency, not a fait accompli. Still — it’s a big deal if true.
There are several reasons why observers say this moment might matter more than past uprisings. One: Iran’s military and strategic posture was exposed during the 12-Day War, when U.S. and Israeli operations struck inside Iran with apparent ease. Two: President Trump has openly commented on the protests and signaled U.S. willingness to back peaceful protesters. Three: the capture of Maduro showed a new willingness — and capability — to take decisive action against allied autocrats abroad.
And yes, people noticed the optics. The administration’s social posts about Maduro circulated widely.
Nicolas Maduro on board the USS Iwo Jima. pic.twitter.com/omF2UpDJhA
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) January 3, 2026
If the Times reporting is accurate, Khamenei’s fallback is Russia. Israeli intelligence veterans told the paper Moscow is the only obvious refuge: Iran’s old allies are limited, and the ayatollah’s options narrow quickly when protests spread and security forces wobble.
There’s also this, from Iranian official channels. Khamenei warned publicly about U.S. intentions:
“Those who argued that the solution to the country’s problems was in negotiating with the US have seen what happened. In the midst of Iran negotiating with the US, the US government was busy behind the scenes preparing plans for war.”
That quote is straight from the account tied to the supreme leader. It signals both paranoia and a justification for hardline measures. But if officials are already prepping assets, property and cash overseas, it looks like they’re taking the threat of collapse seriously.
There are complications to any escape plan. Many senior figures have family abroad — often in Western countries. Tracking down and restricting travel is messy. And if a top leader tries to surface in Moscow, that creates a big diplomatic headache for Russia, too.
Internally, Iran has seen repeated waves of unrest: 1999, 2009, 2017, 2019, 2022. None toppled the regime. Yet this moment feels different to some because of outside pressure and the clear demonstration that regimes can be disrupted quickly.
And then there’s the human angle. Ordinary Iranians have taken risks to protest. The regime’s loosening of some social controls — reportedly to placate a shaky new president after Raisi’s death — hasn’t calmed the streets. Some activists see the fall of Venezuela’s strongman as inspiration.
It’s worth saying plainly: if authoritarian rulers start running for cover, that’s a sign the people’s pressure is working. No one should pretend regime change is easy or without consequences. But for Iranians who’ve lived under clerical repression for decades, the prospect of power shifting is cause for hope.
There’s also a darker practical note. The elite plan reportedly includes moving assets and family. A bitter joke from refugees summed up the split in the ruling class: “Death to America — but not before we get our kids out!”
So what now? Watch Tehran’s security forces. Watch defections. Watch where key figures show up. If the Times is right and Khamenei has a Plan B, the world may soon get clearer signals about which way Iran is headed.
Those who argued that the solution to the country's problems was in negotiating with the US have seen what happened. In the midst of Iran negotiating with the US, the US government was busy behind the scenes preparing plans for war.
— Khamenei.ir (@khamenei_ir) January 3, 2026
One final point for U.S. policymakers and conservatives watching this: decisive support for peaceful protesters and a clear stance against mass repression matters. Pressure can change calculations. That’s the takeaway here — and it’s why this story will stick around.