Following Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race, Democratic lawmakers, political figures, and donors rallied behind Vice President Kamala Harris on Sunday. In a statement released on X, Biden explained that while his intention was to run for reelection, he believed remainder of his term. In a separate post, he also endorsed Harris as the party’s presumptive presidential nominee for the upcoming Democratic National Convention.
In response to Biden’s announcement and endorsement, Rasmussen Reports released a poll showing that in a head-to-head matchup against Harris, former President Donald Trump is dominating among independent voters. Among this group, Trump holds a 20-point lead over Harris with 53% of support compared to Harris’ 33%. Another candidate option received 9% of support, while 5% of voters remained undecided.
This poll comes after Harris officially confirmed the needed amount of delegates to be considered the party’s presumptive nominee. It also follows months of backlash against Biden’s debate performance against Trump, where he appeared to struggle to finish his statements and froze mid-sentence. Despite Republicans raising concerns about Biden’s mental fitness in the past, it wasn’t until the debate that Democrats and the media began to question his abilities.
In a separate CBS/YouGov poll conducted after the debate, 72% of Americans no longer believed that Biden had the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, a significant increase from a similar survey conducted in June. This growing concern about his abilities likely played a role in his decision to step down and endorse Harris as the party’s nominee for 2024.
As Biden steps aside and Harris takes the lead, the Harris campaign has yet to comment on the Rasmussen poll. However, according to the pollsters, this result aligns with their previous data on Harris’s popularity. In a post on Twitter, Rasmussen stated, “We have done more Harris polling than almost any pollster. So this is no surprise to us. And it’s consistent with our last Biden v Trump poll. She did not improve on Biden.”
With Biden’s endorsement and the support from Democratic leaders and donors, Harris will head into the upcoming DNC as the likely presidential nominee for the party. However, the poll results show that she may face a tough competition in the general election, especially among independent voters who favor Trump over Harris by a significant margin.
Independents Only-
Trump: 53% (+20)
Harris: 33%
Someone Else: 9%
Not Sure: 5%We have done more Harris polling than almost any pollster. So this is no surprise to us. And it’s consistent with our last Biden v Trump poll. She did not improve on Biden. https://t.co/QypzA6cQIu
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) July 25, 2024
Only time will tell how the 2024 election will play out, but for now, Trump continues to hold a strong lead among independent voters, according to the latest Rasmussen poll.