Trump Backs Paxton as Cornyn Stumbles
Donald Trump jumped into the Texas Senate runoff with both feet over the weekend, and the race may not look the same again. He called John Cornyn “VERY disloyal” and gave Ken Paxton a loud boost right when the contest was tightening up in the final stretch.
The timing matters. Neither Republican cleared 50 percent in the primary, so the runoff became the real fight. For months, Cornyn had the edge of name recognition and decades in Washington. But that old advantage has started to fade fast. Paxton has momentum, and Trump’s endorsement gave it another shove.
Fresh polling from SoCal Strategies, taken May 20 and 21, showed Paxton ahead by 21 points. That is not a small bump. That is a sign that a large chunk of GOP voters is ready to move on from the Senate establishment and stick with the candidate who has stayed closer to the Trump base.
Prediction markets are telling the same story. On Polymarket and Kalshi, Paxton has been listed with more than a 90 percent chance of winning. That kind of number does not happen when a race is evenly balanced. It usually means the money sees where the wind is blowing.
Trump also used the moment to make a broader point about what he wants from Republicans. In his view, Cornyn failed to back major election reform efforts that include voter ID, proof of citizenship, and tighter limits on mail voting. That message lands well with conservative voters who feel Washington Republicans talk tough but rarely deliver when it counts.
Paxton’s allies are already looking past the runoff and into November. The Lone Star Liberty PAC has started airing a hard-edged ad aimed at Democrat James Talarico, the likely general election opponent if Paxton wins. The spot highlights a string of statements and positions from Talarico that Republicans believe will play badly with Texas voters.
The ad is part politics, part warning shot. It shows how quickly the Texas GOP is lining up behind Paxton and turning the page on Cornyn. Trump’s message was simple: loyalty matters, and he believes Paxton has earned it. For Cornyn, that is a rough place to be when the base is already restless and the numbers are moving the wrong way.
Texas Republicans now face a clear choice. One lane goes with the old guard. The other goes with the Trump-backed firebrand who is surging at the exact moment the runoff is supposed to be decided.